The Yemeni civil war broke out in early 2015. Huthi rebels and military units allied with ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh are fighting for control of the country against different groups, including what remains of the government of President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, and a Saudi-led coalition supported by the U.S., the UK and France.
Since then, over 6000 people have been killed, and the situation is looking increasingly bleak. There is an ongoing humanitarian crisis, with 14.4million people being affected by severe food shortages bordering on famine.
To add to the complexity, the conflict has become multi-layered, with regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia being played out in a proxy war.
In their report on the situation in Yemen offering conflict resolution recommendations, International Crisis Group (ICG) state that “the country is broken to a degree that requires significant time, resources and new political agreements to overcome."
The UN estimates that at least 6,000 people have been killed, including over 2,800 civilians
The situation is increasingly desperate, and ICG is warning that the war has “opened vast opportunities for AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and IS to expand….without a breakthrough, it will continue descent into state disintegration, territorial fragmentation and sectarian violence.”
The risk for a refugee crisis and increased violent radicalisation being triggered in the Gulf region is increasingly high as the conflict progresses.
Impeding progress is the fact that neither side is close to defeat or exhaustion, and their commitments to UN-led peace talks is “lukewarm”.
There is little political will for compromise on either side, and the added complexity of heavyweight players such as Saudi Arabia and Iran is doing little for carrying forward a constructive peace process.
ICG is calling on Saudi Arabia to "suspend military action in the capital, Sanaa, for a specified period of time to show goodwill ahead of UN negotiations."
80% of the population require humanitarian assistance
Solutions?
In the report, ICG has published a list of recommendations to achieve eventual peace in the country.
Amongst them, they urge all sides to de-escalate conflict, free political prisoners, and allow unhindered humanitarian and commercial access to civilians in cities such as Taiz.
Whilst a negotiations are being brokered, ICG is pushing for all actors to “abide by the law of war, refrain from media campaigns that label opponents in sectarian terms or as agents of foreign states and express support for and actively work toward a ceasefire and negotiations leading to a durable settlement. “